Gold and Silver Edge Higher as Markets Weigh Fed Hike Odds

The upward momentum in metals follows a decline in crude oil prices, spurred by reports of renewed negotiations between Washington and Tehran. While Vice President JD Vance described recent talks as a foundation for a final deal, geopolitical volatility remains a factor. The resulting drop in energy costs has provided a marginal benefit to gold, yet the broader financial environment remains dominated by the central bank's hawkish posture.

Yields on the 10-year Treasury note have climbed to 4.50%, up from 4.46% late last week. This rise in borrowing costs, coupled with a firmer dollar, acts as a ceiling for non-yielding assets. Market participants have rapidly adjusted their expectations for monetary policy, with the probability of a rate hike by year-end surging from 57% to nearly 90% in just seven days. Consequently, gold faces significant resistance near the $4,221 level, while silver remains sensitive to industrial risk appetite as equities show mixed performance.