Heraeus analysts project medium-term slide for gold and silver

Precious metals face a period of sustained pressure as markets recalibrate to a hawkish Federal Reserve and the easing of geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran. Analysts at Heraeus warn that while the recent Iran-U.S. memorandum provides stability, monetary policy shifts remain the primary headwind for bullion.

Money Talk·June 22, 2026·reads: 1,527

The Federal Reserve’s decision to remove its easing bias from recent policy statements marks a significant pivot for investors. Despite maintaining interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75%, the central bank’s latest Summary of Economic Projections reveals that half of the FOMC participants anticipate further rate hikes by the end of 2026. This stance, reinforced by Chairman Kevin Warsh’s focus on price stability, comes as U.S. consumer prices reached 4.2% in May—more than double the Fed's 2% target.

Simultaneously, the formal signing of a memorandum between the U.S. and Iran on June 17 signals a de-escalation of conflict. The agreement includes the lifting of the Strait of Hormuz blockade and the release of $28 billion in Iranian assets. However, Heraeus experts anticipate that market normalization will be gradual. Clearing mines and the logistical reality of tanker transit times mean energy prices may remain elevated for months, complicating the global inflation outlook and influencing central bank policies in Europe and Japan.

Silver faces additional hurdles beyond interest rate volatility. Indian imports of the metal plummeted to 1.0 million ounces in May, down from 17.2 million ounces during the same period in 2025. This 94% year-on-year drop reflects both the removal of previous duty incentives and a recent hike in import tariffs from 6% to 15%. With silver now categorized as a restricted item in India—a market representing 18% of global demand—price recovery remains constrained. Spot silver recently retreated from highs above $71 per ounce to trade near $66.49, reflecting a cautious investor sentiment as the market digests the Fed's firm commitment to curbing inflation.