BlackRock sees gold and silver as more than defensive assets

Higher real yields, a stronger U.S. dollar and profit-taking have weighed on both metals, Akullian wrote in an analysis published Tuesday. Gold, after reaching a record above $5,000 an ounce in early 2026, is down about 10% year to date. Silver has also fallen following a positive 2025, facing macroeconomic headwinds as well as profit-taking.

Akullian identified government debt, safe-haven demand and industrial use as key forces shaping the market. U.S. federal debt exceeds 120% of GDP, with annual deficits near 6–7% of GDP, she said; debt has also topped 100% of GDP in major developed economies including Japan, the U.K., France and Canada. Gold has historically appealed as a store of value without sovereign issuer risk. Silver, whose annualized volatility over the past 20 years has been up to twice gold’s, is more exposed to swings in investment and industrial demand.

The macroeconomic backdrop has become less supportive, Akullian said. Improved U.S. growth eased concerns about fiscal sustainability, while the dollar rebounded after a broader shift away from U.S. assets following reciprocal tariffs announced in April 2025. Higher real yields and a stronger dollar have also challenged non-yielding assets.

Gold’s portfolio role, she argued, extends beyond a traditional haven. During months since 2020 when the S&P 500 fell more than 5%, gold returned an average of 2%, compared with returns near flat for the U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. Silver offers a different mix: about 60% of annual consumption is tied to electronics, solar panels and semiconductors, with electronics accounting for roughly 445 million ounces of demand a year. Akullian cited AI infrastructure, electrification and solar power as potential sources of further demand.

Central banks and investment products remain important supports for gold. A 2026 survey found 89% of central banks expect global gold reserves to rise over the next 12 months, while a record 45% plan to add to their own holdings, compared with 43% in 2025 and 29% in 2024. Gold overtook U.S. Treasuries as the largest share of global reserves for the first time in 30 years in 2025, Akullian said. Global gold ETF holdings exceeded 4,000 tonnes and assets surpassed $650 billion that year.

She also cited Tether’s roughly 140 tonnes of gold holdings and the potential for stablecoin growth to support additional demand. Stablecoins grew from $28 billion in 2020 to more than $280 billion in 2025; forecasts for 2030 range from $1.9 trillion in a base case to as much as $4 trillion in a bullish scenario.

For silver, solar photovoltaic technology accounted for nearly 29% of industrial demand in 2024, up from about 11% in 2014. Akullian said solar, electric vehicles and data-center expansion could support demand growth through 2030. She cautioned that silver’s higher volatility also brings greater downside risk, and that allocations to it have often been smaller than those to gold in diversified portfolios. BlackRock expects returns for precious metals to be more moderate than those of the past year, while structural demand remains supportive.