Gold slips below $4,000 as analysts flag $3,900 support

TD Securities’ Head of Commodity Strategy, Bark Melek, said in a report published Tuesday that gold could retest support near $3,900 an ounce. The call followed October inflation data that came in above expectations: headline consumer prices rose 0.4%, against forecasts for 0.3%, while core inflation increased 0.3%, compared with an expected 0.2%. Gold fell 2% Tuesday after the report.

Markets are pricing in at least a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike next month and nearly 75 basis points of further tightening overall, TD Securities said. The CME’s FedWatch Tool put the chance of a 50-basis-point hike at 13.2%. The bank cited rising Treasury yields, higher carrying costs and renewed U.S. dollar strength as headwinds. Central banks and the broader official sector have bought 675 tonnes of gold so far this year, 6% more than over the same period in 2025, but TD Securities said that demand may not offset weaker investment buying. Soft demand for physical bullion, exchange-traded funds and futures, along with sluggish jewelry consumption, could leave gold in its recent $3,900-to-$4,200 range.

FOREX.com Market Analyst Fawad Razaqzada identified $3,942 to $4,000 as a key support zone. A sustained break below it, he said, would weaken the recent short-term bullish momentum. He sees the recent low near $3,870 as the first significant downside target, followed by support at $3,738 and $3,476.

Razaqzada also pointed to fading safe-haven demand as diplomatic efforts to end the U.S.-Iran conflict gain momentum. For a recovery, he said gold would need to break above resistance at $4,106 to $4,140; a sustained move past that band could eventually take prices toward $4,300.