Ted Oakley trims miners and tech, keeps gold bullion

The Nasdaq 100 fell as much as 5% on Nov. 5, while a gauge of major chipmakers stood 36% below its June record and Nvidia dropped nearly 8%, Bloomberg reported. A day earlier, Oakley said Oxbow, based in Austin, Texas, was selling Google and Microsoft. Asked if retirement investors should add to big tech, he replied: “If I were them, I wouldn't buy any of them.”

Oxbow has taken profits on leading energy holdings, reduced its gold-mining shares and moved cash into short-term Treasuries. Oakley said the firm does not sell its gold bullion, but has cut miners over the past two months because they can fall more sharply than the metal. In 2008, he recalled, gold fell more than 20%, while miners dropped more than 60%. He cautioned that gold may also decline in a broad market selloff. For existing holders, he said, there was no need to rush to buy more; lower interest rates could support the metal.

Oakley expects weakness in the first seven to nine months of the year and thinks the Federal Reserve may be cutting rates by midyear. He does not expect stagflation, arguing that a slowdown would cool prices. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure was 3.6% in September, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Market expectations differed: Bloomberg reported that fed funds futures pointed to rate increases in December and March.

Oxbow’s Treasury holdings are concentrated in bonds maturing in three to five years, which Oakley expects to gain value if rates fall. They account for about 40% to 42% of the firm’s stock strategy and roughly 58% of its high-income strategy. The firm is avoiding 30-year Treasuries. Oakley also said it had sold about 20% of its five best-performing energy holdings after their gains, while retaining producers, major dividend payers and pipelines. He expects oil to do well over the next five to 10 years, but not necessarily in the next six months.

For a new client with $1 million in cash, Oakley said Oxbow would allocate no more than 20% to stocks, 20% to 25% to its high-income strategy and 50% to 60% to Treasuries. He said the firm’s first priority is protecting capital, and warned that some retirees he meets have 85% to 90% of their money in stocks.