China Gold Imports Surge Toward Record as Silver Faces Critical Price Test

China’s gold appetite remains undeterred by high costs, with 1,141 tonnes imported during the first eight months of 2026. This performance already outpaces the 940 tonnes recorded for the entirety of 2025. While retail jewelry interest remains muted, institutional and private investment demand continues to drive these non-monetary inflows, which are distinct from the 20 tonnes added to the People’s Bank of China reserves in August.

Global production trends also show resilience, particularly in Australia, where gold output reached 303 tonnes for the fiscal year ending in June. Elsewhere, governments are seeking to tap into latent wealth; Indonesia has launched an initiative to transition 360 tonnes of household-held gold into the formal financial system. Conversely, India faces a cooling period for bullion demand. A monsoon rainfall deficit of 15% threatens rural incomes, which typically account for over half of the country’s gold consumption.

Silver markets are currently navigating a volatile landscape shaped by a strengthening U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields. With the 10-year TIPS real yield touching 2.8%, investors are demanding higher inflation-adjusted returns, putting pressure on precious metals. Analysts note that while silver imports in India saw a monthly spike to 15.5 million ounces in August, the metal must hold above $60 per ounce to avoid a sustained bearish trend. Failure to maintain this support could cement a pattern of lower highs and lows that has persisted since January.